高速公路交通流实时安全性评价

根据多条高速公路近3年的事故数据及实时交通流数据,分析了高速公路运营安全性的相关影响因素,在此基础上提出了车速变异系数指标及其分级标准,建立了考虑交通流量、平均车速、车速变异系数、天气条件等多因素的高速公路交通流运行风险预测多元模型,并提出了高速公路交通流实时行车风险指数TRI指标,制定了交通流状态实时安全性评价标准,最后给出了高速公路交通流混合交通状态下的实时安全风险评价流程。通过西攀高速公路的交通流实时数据,验证了模型的有效性。     

基于RS&GIS的长白山地区生态安全评价研究

以遥感影像数据、专题数据、DEM数据、气象站实测数据和统计数据为数据源,采用极差法、层次分析法、综合指数法、RS&GIS等方法对长白山地区的生态安全进行了评价.结果表明:长白山地区生态安全水平呈现出明显的空间差异性,整体由中部向东西两端逐渐降低.各生态安全等级面积从大到小为临界安全等级、较安全等级、不安全等级、较不安全等级、安全等级.统计了各行政单元的平均生态安全指数和等级构成,各县市生态安全水平从高到低为长白县、抚松县、安图县、和龙市、临江市,各县市的生态安全等级构成也有所差异.长白山地区生态安全水平以临界安全等级为主,整体上生态环境质量一般,系统服务功能受到了一定程度的破坏.     

Analysis of Meteorological Drought Pattern During Different Climatic and Cropping Seasons in Bangladesh

Drought is one of the most frequent natural disasters in Bangladesh which severely affect agro‐based economy and people's livelihood in almost every year. Characterization of droughts in a systematic way is therefore critical in order to take necessary actions toward drought mitigation and sustainable development. In this study, standardized precipitation index is used to understand the spatial distribution of meteorological droughts during various climatic seasons such as premonsoon, monsoon, and winter seasons as well as cropping seasons such as Pre‐Kharif (March‐May), Kharif (May‐October), and Rabi (December‐February). Rainfall data collected from 29 rainfall gauge stations located in different parts of the country were used for a period of 50 years (1961‐2010). The study reveals that the spatial characteristics of droughts vary widely according to season. Premonsoon droughts are more frequent in the northwest, monsoon droughts mainly occur in the west and northwest, winter droughts in the west, and the Rabi and Kharif droughts are more frequent in the north and northwest of Bangladesh. It is expected that the findings of the study will support drought monitoring and mitigation activities in Bangladesh.     

电气伤亡事故的主客体场景指标设计及统计规律

为合理预防控制电气伤亡事故的发生提供依据，通过检索查阅国内外相关文献和政府网站公布的电气伤亡事故和案例情况描述，选取105起典型电气伤亡事故案例进行统计与分析；针对电气伤亡事故涉及的主客体场景要素，对其进行筛选、分类、排序及指标设计，形成系统的电气伤亡事故指标体系；结合现实情况对统计结果进行原因分析，根据统计结果，得到电气伤亡事故发生的一般规律，据此提出安全管理中需要关注与重视之处，以此来预防电气伤亡事故的发生。     

炼油厂厂界恶臭强度分级评估

石油炼制是产生恶臭污染的重点行业之一,恶臭强度是评估恶臭污染程度的重要参数。以炼油厂厂界大气特征污染物为研究对象,综合考虑检出率、嗅阈值和物质浓度3项指标,采用指标评分法筛选出厂界主要恶臭污染物硫化氢、氨、甲苯和二甲苯。基于韦伯-费希纳定律构建了恶臭强度分级评估方法,以某炼油厂为例进行了厂界恶臭强度评估,结果表明,厂界恶臭强度值为0.63,属于Ⅱ级(轻污染),硫化氢是恶臭强度的主要贡献源。应用感官测定法验证了该评估方法的可靠性。从恶臭管理的角度看,炼油厂在厂界达标排放的基础上应进一步实施恶臭污染综合治理措施,以改善周边的环境质量。     

城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准研究

为提高我国城市燃气风险管理水平，帮助风险管理者科学地分配维护资源，探讨提出了我国城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准；采用AIR指标法确定了个人风险可接受标准范围为(2.397 3×10-7,4.794 7×10-7)；运用F-N曲线法结合ALARP原则，确定了社会风险可接受标准，最大可接受风险的截距为4.794 7×10-7，可忽略风险的截距为4.794 7×10-8；利用生活质量指数推导模型，计算了达到城市燃气事故可忽略风险水平的最优安全投入成本；基于风险动态原则，分析提出了风险可接受标准的更新办法。研究结果表明:我国城市燃气行业可接受风险水平低于煤矿、大坝、化工等危险行业的可接受风险水平；虽然我国城市燃气事故死亡率逐年降低，但要达到可忽略的风险水平，每年还需大量安全资金投入。     

鄱阳湖平原区农村门塘浮游藻类群落特征及其生物学评价

于2018年—2019年在鄱阳湖区周边选取4个县（区）10个村庄的典型门塘开展浮游藻类采样调查。研究共鉴定出藻类6门83种，以蓝藻门、绿藻门和硅藻门为主；浮游藻类细胞密度全年范围为7.30×104个/L～2.78×1011个/L，年均值为1.4×1010个/L，其中夏季细胞密度最大，冬季细胞密度最小；优势种主要有小环藻、微囊藻、铜绿微囊藻、卵形隐藻等，且具有较为明显的季节演替，全年优势种为小环藻；藻类多样性指数（H′）年均值为1.49，丰富度指数（M）年均值为1.92，全年水体生物学评价结果为中度污染。     

“三线一单”促进四川省高质量发展

过去40年来我国经济建设取得了举世瞩目的成绩,但是也留下了很多生态环境问题。目前我国经济已经由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,但高质量发展缺乏指标体系和具体路径。“三线一单”是一套生态环境分区管控体系,其主要目的是统筹地方社会经济与环境保护的矛盾,促进经济结构转型。四川省在“三线一单”编制过程中,通过建立指标体系从生态环境保护的角度为地区高质量发展提供了量化标准,通过差异化管控要求为地区高质量发展提供了具体路径,从生态环境角度助力高质量发展。     

The Water Poverty Index: An application in the Indian context

For developing countries, the proportion of households covered by improved water resources is conventionally used to assess the water stress situation. However, in a developing country like India with a high population growth rate, water demand and supply are considerably mismatched. An agro-based economy with large variations in socio-economic conditions and changing rainfall patterns across the states imposes greater challenge on water resources. Therefore, there is a need to assess the water situation across the country in a holistic manner. This paper proposes application of the Water Poverty Index as a comprehensive policy tool to assess actual water-stress situation across 20 major states in India. This index covers important socio-economic parameters such as access, capacity, use and environment in addition to water resources of each state. The results and findings are expected to be of use to policymakers and implementing agencies. In view of policy formulation, a state performing well on a Water Poverty Index component can act as a benchmark for another state.     

Inherent thermal runaway hazard evaluation method of chemical process based on fire and explosion index

Thermal runaway hazard assessment provides the basis for comparing the hazard levels of different chemical processes. To make an overall evaluation, hazard of materials and reactions should be considered. However, most existing methods didn't take the both into account simultaneously, which may lead the assessment to a deviation from the actual hazard. Therefore, an integrated approach called Inherent Thermal-runaway Hazard Index (ITHI) was developed in this paper. Similar to Dow Fire and Explosion Index(F&EI) function, thermal runaway hazard of chemical process in ITHI was the product of material factor (MF) and risk index (RI) of reaction. MF was an indicator of material thermal hazards, which can be determined by initial reaction temperature and maximum power density. RI, which was the product of probability and severity, indicated the risk of thermal runaway during the reaction stage. Time to maximum rate under adiabatic conditions and criticality classes of scenario were used to indicate the runaway probability of the chemical process. Adiabatic temperature rise and heat of the desired reaction and secondary reaction were used to determine the severity of runaway reaction. Finally, predefined hazard classification criteria was used to classify and interpret the results obtained by this method. Moreover, the method was validated by case studies.